By T N Ashok
NEW DELHI: Russian President Vladimir Putin arrived in India Thursday night for a two-day state go to that has turn out to be a diplomatic flashpoint, testing New Delhi’s skill to take care of strategic independence amid mounting strain from Washington and European capitals.
The arrival marks Putin’s first journey to India for the reason that Ukraine warfare started almost 4 years in the past, and comes at a second when India’s international coverage finds itself below unprecedented scrutiny. After enduring months of escalating U.S. tariffs on Indian items and Western criticism over its continued vitality partnership with Moscow, New Delhi has chosen to reply not with capitulation however with ceremonial grandeur.
Even earlier than Putin’s aircraft touched down at Palam airport, the place Prime Minister Narendra Modi personally greeted him with a heat embrace, preparations within the holy metropolis of Varanasi captured international consideration. In Modi’s parliamentary constituency alongside the Ganges, residents organized what they referred to as an “India-Russia Friendship March,” performing conventional aarti ceremonies earlier than pictures of the Russian chief adorned with vermillion and marigold flowers.
Girls held prayer providers accompanied by drums and conventional music, whereas marchers carried banners declaring “Bharat-Russia sambandh zindabad” (Lengthy dwell India-Russia relations). The occasion, organized by native teams together with Vishal Bharat Sansthan, featured contributors chanting “The Modi-Putin duo will deliver peace to the world” and “India-Russia friendship is important for the world.”
The spectacle—uncommon even by Indian requirements of hospitality—mirrored deep-seated gratitude for Russia’s help throughout important moments in Indian historical past, together with the 1971 Bangladesh liberation warfare when Moscow stood with New Delhi in opposition to Western strain.
On Thursday night, Putin proceeded on to Modi’s residence for a non-public dinner—the opening act in an elaborately choreographed diplomatic ballet. Friday’s schedule features a ceremonial welcome on the presidential palace, a guard of honour, homage at Mahatma Gandhi’s memorial, and formal talks at Hyderabad Home earlier than a state banquet hosted by President Droupadi Murmu.
In keeping with officers briefed on the agenda, discussions will span protection manufacturing, vitality cooperation, prescription drugs, expertise switch, and efforts to rebalance a commerce relationship that has swelled to just about $69 billion however stays closely tilted towards Russian exports. The 2 leaders are anticipated to signal greater than 25 agreements, together with a landmark labour mobility pact permitting expert Indian employees to fill labour shortages in Russia’s expertise and industrial sectors.
Protection cooperation sits on the coronary heart of the summit. India continues to function army {hardware} predominantly of Russian origin—roughly 55% of its legacy techniques—and is in search of extra batches of S-400 air protection techniques after they proved efficient throughout a short air battle with Pakistan in Might. Discussions are additionally anticipated to cowl upgraded BrahMos cruise missiles, hypersonic weapon initiatives, and long-range missile techniques.
Power stays the quiet pillar of the connection. Regardless of Western discomfort, India has turn out to be Russia’s largest oil buyer, buying discounted crude that has helped tame home inflation whereas offering Moscow a important income stream amid sanctions. Nevertheless, latest U.S. strain has precipitated Indian state-owned refiners to pause some Russian purchases, creating uncertainty about future vitality ties.
In a unprecedented diplomatic breach, the ambassadors of Britain, France, and Germany revealed a joint opinion piece in a number one Indian newspaper simply earlier than Putin’s arrival, accusing Russia of escalating the warfare even throughout peace talks and suggesting Moscow may instantly finish hostilities if Putin selected to take action.
The unprecedented public intervention—European diplomats sometimes talk such issues by non-public channels—drew a pointy rebuke from India’s Ministry of Exterior Affairs, which referred to as the article “unacceptable and weird diplomatic apply.”
The European attraction mirrored deeper anxieties in Western capitals. A number of European envoys have quietly urged India to make use of its affect with Putin to push for an finish to the Ukraine battle, citing Modi’s 2022 assertion that “right this moment’s period is just not an period of warfare” as proof that the Kremlin listens to New Delhi in methods it doesn’t have interaction with Western leaders.
However India has fastidiously prevented taking part in mediator, sustaining dialogue with each Moscow and Kyiv with out framing its outreach as strain on both aspect. For Europe, which has watched India improve Russian oil imports whereas European nations face vitality crises, the heat of Putin’s Delhi reception carries symbolic sting.
But European officers privately acknowledge that India’s strategic calculus with Russia is basically totally different from theirs—a Chilly Conflict-era legacy they neither absolutely share nor management. The irony hasn’t been misplaced on Indian policymakers: European nations performed greater than €84 billion in commerce with Russia in 2024 regardless of the battle, but India faces harsher criticism.
The Trump administration’s response has been extra complicated. India stays central to U.S. Indo-Pacific technique as Washington confronts an more and more assertive China. The Quad partnership, protection interoperability, and expertise collaborations have all deepened.
But India’s refusal to hitch Western sanctions in opposition to Russia—or curtail vitality purchases—has examined American endurance. This rigidity exploded in August when Trump imposed 50% tariffs on Indian items, citing the nation’s Russian oil imports as justification. The punitive measure, among the many highest on any nation, was coupled with threats of extra sanctions below the Countering America’s Adversaries By way of Sanctions Act.
For India’s political institution, the tariff escalation learn as financial coercion—and a reminder that even shut companions can turn out to be unpredictable. Putin’s go to permits New Delhi to telegraph a transparent message: it won’t enable strain, even from the USA, to dictate its international coverage selections.
Nonetheless, American officers publicly insist the U.S.-India partnership stays “deep and sturdy.” Privately, Washington analysts anticipate India to make use of the Putin summit to extract concessions from either side—a traditional manoeuvre in India’s strategic-autonomy playbook that permits New Delhi to place itself as an indispensable bridge between rival camps.
Power markets from Riyadh to Abu Dhabi are monitoring the summit with specific consideration. India has historically been a serious purchaser of Center Japanese crude, however Russian oil now accounts for roughly 36% of India’s imports—up from lower than 1% earlier than the Ukraine warfare.
This shift has dealt a big blow to OPEC producers, whose share of the Indian market has fallen to a report low of 48.5%. Saudi Arabia’s oil exports to India have dropped to 14-year lows, whereas Iraq, Kuwait, and different Gulf producers have watched Russian barrels displace their conventional market share.
Any long-term contracts or framework agreements rising from the Putin-Modi summit may additional cement Russian provide dominance in India, complicating OPEC’s efforts to handle international oil costs. The potential for deeper India-Russia vitality coordination threatens to create a parallel market construction that undermines OPEC’s pricing energy, significantly if comparable preparations emerge with China.
Nevertheless, latest indicators counsel the panorama could also be shifting. With Russian oil manufacturing commitments to OPEC+ and narrowing worth differentials, some Indian state refiners have begun returning to Center Japanese suppliers. The sustainability of India’s Russian oil dependence—and whether or not Putin’s go to produces new long-term commitments—will considerably have an effect on international vitality markets and Center Japanese strategic calculations.
Putin’s arrival in Delhi underscores a worldwide order the place center powers maintain growing leverage. India—with its $3.5 trillion financial system, 1.4 billion individuals, and strategic location—is wielding that leverage with rising assertiveness.
After months of confrontation with Washington over commerce, India is demonstrating that its partnerships are plural, versatile, and constructed round nationwide curiosity reasonably than ideological alignment. The heat of Putin’s reception sends a number of messages concurrently: to Europe, that India won’t be lectured; to Washington, that coercion will backfire; to Moscow, that New Delhi stays a dependable accomplice; and to Beijing, that India charts its personal course.
For Western capitals hoping to diplomatically isolate Russia, this actuality is unwelcome however more and more unavoidable. India’s strategic autonomy—lengthy dismissed as rhetorical posturing—is now revealed as operational coverage.
As officers in Delhi usually remind visiting diplomats: India doesn’t select sides. It chooses outcomes. And Putin’s high-profile go to, full with riverside prayers and presidential banquets, is the newest reminder that New Delhi’s independence is just not negotiable—even below the heaviest international strain. (IPA Service)
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